National Intelligence Council (NIC) – the US center for midterm and long-term strategic thinking – published in November 2008 a document called “Global Trends 2025: The National Intelligence Councils 2025 Project” (PDF 8,3MB here), which also contains (although a pretty short one) paragraph: “Water, Food, and Climate Change” (pages 51-57).

The NIC describes the document as follows:
“/…/ it takes a long-term view of the future. It offers a fresh look at how key global trends might develop over the next 15 years to influence world events. Our report is not meant to be an exercise in prediction or crystal ball-gazing. Mindful that there are many possible “futures,” we offer a range of possibilities and potential discontinuities, as a way of opening our minds to developments we might otherwise miss. /…/ the project’s primary goal is to provide US policymakers with a view of how world developments could evolve, identifying opportunities and potentially negative developments that might warrant policy action.”

Some out-takes from the aforementioned paragraph of the document [the links are added my me]:

• Experts currently consider 21 countries with a combined population of about 600 million to be either cropland or freshwater scarce. Owing to continuing population growth, 36 countries, home to about 1.4 billion people, are projected to fall into this category by 2025. Among the new entrants will be Burundi, Colombia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Malawi, Pakistan and Syria. [at least one of them - Pakistan - has nuclear capabilities and there isn't much certainty about one of them (Syria) - my addition]
• In developing countries, agriculture currently consumes over 70 percent of the world’s water.
• The World Bank estimates that demand for food will rise by 50 percent by 2030, as a result of growing world population, rising affluence, and shifts to Western dietary preferences by a larger middle class.
• /…/ farm production probably will continue to be hampered by misguided agriculture policies that limit investment and distort critical price signals.
• If political elites are more worried about urban instability than rural incomes—a safe bet in many countries—these policies are likely to persist, increasing the risk of tight supplies in the future.
• Between now and 2025, the world will have to juggle competing and conflicting energy security and food security concerns, yielding a tangle of difficult-to-manage consequences.
• This “fuel farming” tradeoff, coupled with periodic export controls among Asian producers and rising demand for protein among growing middle classes worldwide, will force grain prices in the global market to fluctuate at levels above today’s highs. Some economists argue that, with international markets settling at lower grain volumes, speculation—invited by expectations of rising fuel costs and more erratic, climate change-induced weather patterns—could play a greater role in food prices.
• A consortium of large agricultural producers—including India and China, along with the US and EU partners—is likely to work to launch a second Green Revolution, this time in Sub-Saharan Africa, which could help dampen price volatility in worldwide grain markets.
• Perceptions of a rapidly changing environment may cause nations to take unilateral actions to secure resources, territory, and other interests.

Some say that nowadays it’s impossible to predict further than 10 years… nevertheless, it’s interesting to read long-term “future papers”.